Russian military units and ISIS terrorists are fighting and killing each other in Syria, but ironically the leaders of Russia and ISIS might both want the same candidate in the U.S. presidential election. Moreover, they might both be in positions to influence the outcome to some degree. These two foreign forces may help decide who the next American President will be.
For Vladimir Putin, the election of Donald Trump may undermine the NATO military alliance. Trump has said that the U.S. would not automatically defend its treaty allies and that we might withdraw forces from Europe and Asia. This weakening of the U.S. commitment to NATO comes at a time when the military alliance is seeking to deter Russia from threatening to annex the Baltic nations, as it did the Crimea.
For ISIS, the election of Trump would help them to validate the group’s contention that the U.S. is at war with Islam. That narrative has been a powerful tool for ISIS in recruiting people to join its ranks and commit terrorist attacks. Trump’s anti-Islamic remarks and proposals could, perversely, strengthen the terrorist group.
Russian intelligence organizations appear to have hacked the Democratic National Committee and the State Department. We can assume that they have also gotten in to the networks of the Clinton Foundation and the Clinton family. The recent selective leaks of the DNC’s e-mails may be only the beginning of a drip, drip, drip of potentially embarrassing revelations designed to hurt Clinton in the election.
ISIS has demonstrated an ability to conduct terrorist attacks or lone-wolf killing sprees in the Middle East, U.S. and Europe, including events timed to specific dates, like France’s Bastille Day.
Would a large terrorist attack in the U.S. in October convince some voters of the need for a “strong” and “anti-Muslim” President? Donald Trump, running as the law-and-order candidate, seems to be positioning himself to benefit electorally from just such an event.
None of this is to say that the Republican candidate has sought or would want the help of Putin or ISIS. Indeed, Trump’s supporters probably disagree with the analysis that suggests Putin and ISIS are rooting for him. Yet neither Trump nor Clinton, nor indeed the U.S. government, are able to prevent foreign influence in this year’s election. Russia is likely to already be in possession of a treasure trove of e-mails and documents which can be selectively leaked at the right moment. ISIS may already have small groups of its supporters, or just lone wolves, in the U.S. waiting for a signal to stage terrorist attacks here.
As we have repeatedly seen, using easily obtained guns and explosives, or just large trucks, a few people can kill many with little or no warning.
Both Putin and ISIS control the timing of when they act to effect the election. There are people in both the Russian government and the terrorist group who understand the U.S. and our politics well. They know that a well-timed leak or terrorist incident, with just a few days left in the campaign, can temporarily swing enough votes to make the difference in a close campaign.
Later, upon reflection, voters might think differently, but the election will already have happened.
Similarly, if Trump does get elected, he might surprise Putin and/or ISIS with his actions. We cannot really know what he will do. What we do know is that for the first time in decades, the U.S. election could be decided by actions taken to effect the outcome by enemies of the United States.
Clarke, chairman of the Middle East Institute, is former White House counter-terrorism czar (1993-2001).
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